Are you preparing for the new year, or just reliving the old one?

I’m going out on a very thick limb with this one:  You didn’t change much in your business between December 2025 and January 2026, did you?

I’m guessing not.  The winter is a strange time.  Too many of us are inside and too few of us are thinking about the outside. Particularly this past December, which strangely felt like half a month between the spacing of holidays and the pacing of the news cycle, it was hard to really think about what’s next.

So…didya?

If not, you are probably falling prey to the old adage about armies and their generals:  They tend to prepare to fight the battles of the past.  So, horseback armies are succumb to trenches, which succumb to tanks, which succumb to aircraft, which succumb to drones, which…well, you get the picture.

What does this mean for your business, your organization, or your family?  I think it means you need to turn your eyes toward the horizon and look at what’s coming…and boy could that be a challenge given the year we just had.

You just finished a year where trade uncertainty was at its highest since the Pandemic, and where geopolitics have been mired in the ambiguity of shifting spheres of influence in the Middle East, China, Russia, and Latin America.  You just finished a year where, depending on your industry, you are either seeing muted demand and sideways trends (hello to construction, automotive, consumer goods, and hospitality) or you are seeing skyrocketing demand driven by outlandish investment and development (shoutout to data centers, chips, electric power, and any number of the darling offspring of the AI craze).

So what?  What’s this year going to bring? That’s for you to estimate.

But, how?

Maybe it’s as easy as thinking about your sustainers, your changers, and your variables.

Your sustainers are the things you have high confidence to be foundational to your business… perhaps it’s a tried and true business that runs like a top or a customer segment that is loyal and dependable.  These are the things you need to plan to invest your time in to create a bedrock for your year.

Your changers might be the things that you have high confidence to be fleeting and flighty.  This could be a vendor you know is in distress or a customer segment you know to be tapped out.  These can be planned for and should all have contingencies.

Your variables are the toughest elements to judge.  These are the business drivers that present true ambiguity.  They require hedging and contingencies.  These may be a “high beta” project that could pay off nicely or an acquisition that may (or may not) get done.

So here’s the test:  If you can’t articulate what your sustainers, changers, and variables are, you’re probably caught up in last year’s war.  You are probably expecting the world to look like it used to.

And?

It won’t.  So get ahead of it.

What do you think?  Are you getting ready for this year by repeating last year’s habits?